Saturday, August 15, 2009

93% of Surveys are Meaningless

Over at Bad Science, Ben Goldacre decries an article about a spurious "study", lifted straight from a corporate press-release, in his own newspaper The Guardian:
On Monday we printed a news article about a “report” “published” by Nuffield Health, headlined “No sex please, we’re British and we’re lazier than ever”. “This is the damning conclusion of a major new report published today,” says the press release from Nuffield ... I asked Nuffield’s press office for a copy of the new report, but they refused, and explained that the material is all secret. The Guardian journalist can’t have read it either. I don’t really see how this “report” has been “published”, and in all honesty, I wonder whether it even exists, in any meaningful sense, outside of a press release.

Nuffield Health are the people who run private hospitals and clinics which you can’t afford....the Guardian gave free advertising to Nuffield, for their unpublished published “report”, which nobody even read, in exchange for 370 words of content. This is endemic, and it creeps me out.

The Telegraph also reprinted the press release; sorry, wrote an article drawing on the press-release amongst many other carefully-research sources. The other papers probably did too; I'm too lazy to check.

For you see, the alleged study found that British people are monumentally slothful: 73% of couples said that they are "regularly" too tired to have sex while 64% of parents say that they are always "too tired" to play with their children, and so on.

Yes, according to Nuffield Health, only one in three British parents ever play with their own children. The rest are always too exhausted. It's a wonder they found 2,000 people who were awake enough to answer their survey - although, as Goldacre says, maybe they didn't.

This "study" is, obviously, bollocks. It serves only as advertising for Nuffield Health's network of fitness centers, the benefits of which are helpfully listed at the end of the press release. That newspapers regularly reproduce press releases because they can't afford to pay journalists to fill the space any other way is well known nowadays. This is thanks mostly to Nick Davies and his outstanding book Flat Earth News which revealed, in great detail, just how bad things have got.

But the fact that this advert was published in the Health section of The Guardian, is more than just a symptom of the decline of British journalism. It also reflects the peculiarly British obsession with "surveys".

Even if the Nuffield data was fully published in a proper journal, and even it had been a survey of 200,000 people, it would still be meaningless. Asking people whether they are lazy is not a good way of finding out whether they are, in fact, lazy. All it can tell you is whether people think of themselves as lazy, which is very different. If you wanted to prove that British people really were lazy and getting lazier, you would have to look at actual indicators of activity like, say, gym membership rates, or amateur sports team participation, or swimming pool use, or condom sales if you really think people are too tired have sex, etc.

Yet surveys like this seem to be almost mandatory if you want to draw attention to your cause in Britain at present. You have to do one, and you have to massively over-interpret the results. The gay rights group Stonewall this week accused British football of being institutionally homophobic. Their basis for this claim was a survey of - guess - 2,000 football fans, finding, amongst other things, that

Only one in six fans said their club was working to tackle anti-gay abuse and 54% believed the Football Association, Premier League and Football League were not doing enough to tackle the issue.

This survey demonstrates, at best, that many football fans think British football is institutionally homophobic. It does not "Sadly demonstrate that football is institutionally homophobic", as a Stonewall spokesman said, unless you think that British football fans are infallible godlike beings.

I have nothing but sympathy for Stonewall, and they may well be right about homophobia in football. But their survey is meaningless. It's advertising, just like Nuffield Health's survey. Attentive Neuroskeptic readers will remember the case of "In The Face of Fear", yet another survey of about 2,000 people, claiming that Britain is in the grip of an epidemic of anxiety disorders (it's not) and serving as advertising for another well-meaning group, the Mental Health Foundation.

A large and growing proportion of British newspaper articles are essentially promotional material for some kind of company, charity, or activist organization. Honestly, newspapers should just go the whole hog and replace half their pages with paid adverts, and use the money earned to pay their journalists to actually do some journalism. There would only be half as much news, but it would at least be news.

[BPSDB]

93% of Surveys are Meaningless

Over at Bad Science, Ben Goldacre decries an article about a spurious "study", lifted straight from a corporate press-release, in his own newspaper The Guardian:
On Monday we printed a news article about a “report” “published” by Nuffield Health, headlined “No sex please, we’re British and we’re lazier than ever”. “This is the damning conclusion of a major new report published today,” says the press release from Nuffield ... I asked Nuffield’s press office for a copy of the new report, but they refused, and explained that the material is all secret. The Guardian journalist can’t have read it either. I don’t really see how this “report” has been “published”, and in all honesty, I wonder whether it even exists, in any meaningful sense, outside of a press release.

Nuffield Health are the people who run private hospitals and clinics which you can’t afford....the Guardian gave free advertising to Nuffield, for their unpublished published “report”, which nobody even read, in exchange for 370 words of content. This is endemic, and it creeps me out.

The Telegraph also reprinted the press release; sorry, wrote an article drawing on the press-release amongst many other carefully-research sources. The other papers probably did too; I'm too lazy to check.

For you see, the alleged study found that British people are monumentally slothful: 73% of couples said that they are "regularly" too tired to have sex while 64% of parents say that they are always "too tired" to play with their children, and so on.

Yes, according to Nuffield Health, only one in three British parents ever play with their own children. The rest are always too exhausted. It's a wonder they found 2,000 people who were awake enough to answer their survey - although, as Goldacre says, maybe they didn't.

This "study" is, obviously, bollocks. It serves only as advertising for Nuffield Health's network of fitness centers, the benefits of which are helpfully listed at the end of the press release. That newspapers regularly reproduce press releases because they can't afford to pay journalists to fill the space any other way is well known nowadays. This is thanks mostly to Nick Davies and his outstanding book Flat Earth News which revealed, in great detail, just how bad things have got.

But the fact that this advert was published in the Health section of The Guardian, is more than just a symptom of the decline of British journalism. It also reflects the peculiarly British obsession with "surveys".

Even if the Nuffield data was fully published in a proper journal, and even it had been a survey of 200,000 people, it would still be meaningless. Asking people whether they are lazy is not a good way of finding out whether they are, in fact, lazy. All it can tell you is whether people think of themselves as lazy, which is very different. If you wanted to prove that British people really were lazy and getting lazier, you would have to look at actual indicators of activity like, say, gym membership rates, or amateur sports team participation, or swimming pool use, or condom sales if you really think people are too tired have sex, etc.

Yet surveys like this seem to be almost mandatory if you want to draw attention to your cause in Britain at present. You have to do one, and you have to massively over-interpret the results. The gay rights group Stonewall this week accused British football of being institutionally homophobic. Their basis for this claim was a survey of - guess - 2,000 football fans, finding, amongst other things, that

Only one in six fans said their club was working to tackle anti-gay abuse and 54% believed the Football Association, Premier League and Football League were not doing enough to tackle the issue.

This survey demonstrates, at best, that many football fans think British football is institutionally homophobic. It does not "Sadly demonstrate that football is institutionally homophobic", as a Stonewall spokesman said, unless you think that British football fans are infallible godlike beings.

I have nothing but sympathy for Stonewall, and they may well be right about homophobia in football. But their survey is meaningless. It's advertising, just like Nuffield Health's survey. Attentive Neuroskeptic readers will remember the case of "In The Face of Fear", yet another survey of about 2,000 people, claiming that Britain is in the grip of an epidemic of anxiety disorders (it's not) and serving as advertising for another well-meaning group, the Mental Health Foundation.

A large and growing proportion of British newspaper articles are essentially promotional material for some kind of company, charity, or activist organization. Honestly, newspapers should just go the whole hog and replace half their pages with paid adverts, and use the money earned to pay their journalists to actually do some journalism. There would only be half as much news, but it would at least be news.

[BPSDB]

Friday, August 14, 2009

10.000 VISITAS.- COM MUITO ORGULHO.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_vzrlnu76oJw/Shs2YjdMDcI/AAAAAAAABN4/2YQINBj9kEg/s1600/a_002.jpeg

ESTOU MUITO FELIZ.
AO ABRIR O MEU BLOG VI QUE CONSEGUI ATINGIR A META DE 10.000 VISITAS.

UM PRÊMIO PARA NINGUÉM POR DEFEITO.
SIM, POIS EM 5 MESES DE EXISTÊNCIA PÚBLICA ATINGIR ESTA META.
É DE FICAR COM O CORAÇÃO MUITO ORGULHOSO.


BATE BATE CORAÇÃO.
HOJE É DIA DE MUITA ALEGRIA!



COMO ESTOU COM PROBLEMAS NO PC, NÃO TENHO COMO OFERECER NENHUM SELO ESPECIAL.
MAS VOU DEIXAR UMA FLOR PARA LHE ACOMPANHAR PARA SEMPRE NO CANTINHO DE SEU BLOG.
É UMA ROSA. SÍMBOLO DESSE BLOG.
POIS CADA BOTÃO AQUI, REPRESENTA VOCÊ, MEU AMIGO SEGUIDOR E VISITANTE.

LEVE ESTE SÍMBOLO COM VOCÊ!


SE VOCÊ NÃO CONSEGUI ATRAVÉS DESTA POSTAGEM, PEGUE-A NO CANTINHO DA PÁGINA.
TENHO CERTEZA QUE DE REPENTE GANHAREI DE PRESENTE UM E PODEREI PRESENTEÁ-LO. OU ENTÃO NA PRÓXIMA SEMANA, QUANDO ESTIVER COM O PC DE VOLTA E TODOS OS PROGRAMAS FUNCIONANDO DIREITINHO, PODEREI OFERECER UM LINDO PRESENTE PARA VOCÊ.
EMBORA O MEU MAIOR PRESENTE É A SUA AMIZADE VIRTUAL.
AMO CADA UM DE VOCÊS.


UM BEIJO MUITO ESPECIAL PARA VOCÊ!


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_vzrlnu76oJw/SoKy49F3iqI/AAAAAAAAB7I/STJ1GwO85Fw/s320/-rosasobrigada.png

VENHA CONFERIR O QUE TEM DE NOVO NO Blog Coletivo-Uma Interação de Amigos

GANHEI ESTE LINDO SELINHO DA MINHA AMIGA SONIA E OFEREÇO A TODOS QUE ME SEGUEM E GOSTAM DE SELOS.
NÃO TEM COMO ESCOLHER SOMENTE UM BLOG.
VOCÊ FAZ PARTE DESSE MEU UNIVERSO.
COMO O SELO ESTA DESTINADO AS MULHERES, ME PERDOEM OS HOMENS...

OBRIGADA AMIGA SONIA SILVA
Ganhei este lindo selo do

bloghttp://cantinhodeaconchego.blogspot.com/
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_zKFuooTh-6I/SoCkKEWxQSI/AAAAAAAADNQ/Y1hgjEzliO0/s200/FOFAselinho.jpg

Thursday, August 13, 2009

AMANHECER!!!!


Recebi este linda mensagem de uma amiga, aqui da escola.
E gostaria de presentear a todos vocês, meus amigos, que também convivem comigo neste mundo virtual...
Aqui, aprendemos, compartilhamo
s juntos muitos carinhos, muitos afetos.


A PARTIR DO PRÓXIMO

AMANHECER ...

Hoje “me dei um tempo” para pensar na vida.

Na minha vida!!!

Decidi então que a partir do

próximo amanhecer,

Vou mudar alguns detalhes para ser a cada
novo dia, um pouquinho mais feliz.

Para começar, não vou mais olhar para trás.

O que passou é passado, se errei, agora não vou

conseguir corrigir.

Então, para que remoer o que passou?

Refletir sobre aqueles erros sim
e então fazer deles um aprendizado
para o “meu hoje”...

Nem todas as pessoas que amo, retribuem
meus carinhos como “eu” gostaria...

E daí?

A partir do próximo amanhecer vou continuar a amá-las, mas não vou tentar mudá-las.

Pode ser até que ficassem como eu gostaria que fossem e deixassem de ser as pessoas que eu amo.

Isso eu não quero.
Mudo eu...Mudo meu modo de vê-las.

Respeito seu modo de ser.

Mas não pense que vou desistir de meus sonhos!!!

Imagine!!!

A partir do próximo amanhecer,

Vou lutar com mais garra para que eles aconteçam.

Mas vai ser diferente.

Não vou mais responsabilizar
a mais ninguém por minha felicidade.

EU VOU SER FELIZ!!!

Não vou mais parar a minha vida

Porque
o que desejo não acontece,

Porque uma
mensagem não chega,

Porque não ouço
o que gostaria de ouvir.

Vou fazer meu momento...
Vou ser feliz agora...
Terei outros dias pela frente!!!

A partir do próximo amanhecer, vou agradecer a Deus, todos os dias por me dar forças para viver,

Apesar dos meus problemas.

Nunca mais darei muita importância

aos problemas que não tenho conseguido resolver.


Chega de sofrer pelo que não consigo ter,
pelo que não ouço ou não leio.

Pelo tempo que não tenho e até de sofrer por antecipação, pensando sempre, apenas no Pior.

A partir do próximo amanhecer,

Só vou
pensar no que tenh
o de bom.

Meus amigos, nunca mais precisarão

me dar
um ombro para chorar.

Vou aproveitar a presença
deles para sorrir, cantar, para dividir felicidade.

A partir do próximo amanhecer vou ser eu mesmo.

Nunca mais vou tentar ser um modelo de perfeição.

Nunca mais vou sorrir sem vontade
ou falar palavras amorosas por que
acho que sei o que os outros querem ouvir.

A partir do próximo amanhecer vou viver
minha vida,

SEM MEDO DE SER FELIZ.

Vou continuar esperando.

Não, não vou esquecer ninguém.

Mas...

A partir do próximo amanhecer,

Quando a
gente se encontrar, com certeza, vou te dar
“aquele” abraço bem apertado, e com toda
sinceridade

dizer...

ADORO VOCÊ !!!!

E tenho muito amor para lhe dar.

Com carinho

Para TODOS os meu amigos do coração!Acredito que na próxima semana, já terei o PC bem organizado e sem problema.

NÃO DEIXE DE CONHECER ESTES CANTINHOS...


Poetas-Um Vôo Livre

Sinal de Liberdade-uma expressão de sentimento

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

The Neuroscience of Niceness


The Templeton Foundation is offering $4,000,000 to fund research into "Positive Neuroscience". The idea seems to be put some neuro into Positive Psychology. Aspiring neuroscientists are invited to submit proposals for
...projects that apply tools of neuroscience to positive psychological concepts in the following core areas:

Virtue, strength, and positive emotion: What are the neural bases of the cognitive and affective capacities that enable virtues such as discipline, persistence, honesty, compassion, love, curiosity, social and practical intelligence, courage, creativity, and optimism?

Exceptional abilities: What is special about the brains of exceptional individuals and what can we learn from them?

Meaning and positive purpose: How does the brain enable individuals and groups to find meaning and achieve larger goals?

Decisions, values, and free will: How does the brain enable decisions based on values and how can decision-making be improved? What can neuroscience reveal about the nature of human freedom?

Religious belief, prayer, and meditation: How do religious and spiritual practices affect neural function and behavior?

All good and important things, no doubt. But does neuroscience have anything to say about them?

It may not do. Neuroscience has nothing useful to say, for example, about driving a car. If you want to learn how to drive, you get in a car and practice. Now, there must be some biological processes going on in your brain as you to learn how to drive, but we don't understand them, and this doesn't stop us doing it.

So while there must be a "Car Neuroscience", it's irrelevant to cars. And the neuroscience of good and exceptional behaviour may be irrelevant as well, if good and exceptional behaviour is something you learn. Genius, as we know, is 99% perspiration. The answer to the question - "What is special about the brains of exceptional individuals" - may be, nothing.

In fact, there surely are neurological correlates of at least some exceptional abilities. For example, it is hard to deny that autism is a neurological condition, or that people with autism sometimes (although not always) show incredible "savant" abilities. Rain Man is fiction, but that kind of thing does happen.

But researching the neural basis of talent and achievement might not be as nice as you'd think. There are shades of phenology in the idea. Worse, if there's a "neural basis of the cognitive and affective capacities that enable virtues such as discipline, persistence, honesty, compassion..." etc, there are certainly going to be genes which affect the function of those neural circuits. If you discover the "good" genes, might you not start to wonder if society would be better off without the "bad" ones...?

Personally, I'm not too concerned by this kind of speculation. There are plenty of worse things happening in the world than hypothetical future eugenics programs. But many people do worry about this kind of thing: declaring something to be a kind of eugenics is a popular way of ending arguments. It's interesting that by stressing the positive, happy, niceness of their program, the Templeton Foundation feel able to propose something that, looked at from another angle, has deeply un-PC implications.

[BPSDB]

The Neuroscience of Niceness


The Templeton Foundation is offering $4,000,000 to fund research into "Positive Neuroscience". The idea seems to be put some neuro into Positive Psychology. Aspiring neuroscientists are invited to submit proposals for
...projects that apply tools of neuroscience to positive psychological concepts in the following core areas:

Virtue, strength, and positive emotion: What are the neural bases of the cognitive and affective capacities that enable virtues such as discipline, persistence, honesty, compassion, love, curiosity, social and practical intelligence, courage, creativity, and optimism?

Exceptional abilities: What is special about the brains of exceptional individuals and what can we learn from them?

Meaning and positive purpose: How does the brain enable individuals and groups to find meaning and achieve larger goals?

Decisions, values, and free will: How does the brain enable decisions based on values and how can decision-making be improved? What can neuroscience reveal about the nature of human freedom?

Religious belief, prayer, and meditation: How do religious and spiritual practices affect neural function and behavior?

All good and important things, no doubt. But does neuroscience have anything to say about them?

It may not do. Neuroscience has nothing useful to say, for example, about driving a car. If you want to learn how to drive, you get in a car and practice. Now, there must be some biological processes going on in your brain as you to learn how to drive, but we don't understand them, and this doesn't stop us doing it.

So while there must be a "Car Neuroscience", it's irrelevant to cars. And the neuroscience of good and exceptional behaviour may be irrelevant as well, if good and exceptional behaviour is something you learn. Genius, as we know, is 99% perspiration. The answer to the question - "What is special about the brains of exceptional individuals" - may be, nothing.

In fact, there surely are neurological correlates of at least some exceptional abilities. For example, it is hard to deny that autism is a neurological condition, or that people with autism sometimes (although not always) show incredible "savant" abilities. Rain Man is fiction, but that kind of thing does happen.

But researching the neural basis of talent and achievement might not be as nice as you'd think. There are shades of phenology in the idea. Worse, if there's a "neural basis of the cognitive and affective capacities that enable virtues such as discipline, persistence, honesty, compassion..." etc, there are certainly going to be genes which affect the function of those neural circuits. If you discover the "good" genes, might you not start to wonder if society would be better off without the "bad" ones...?

Personally, I'm not too concerned by this kind of speculation. There are plenty of worse things happening in the world than hypothetical future eugenics programs. But many people do worry about this kind of thing: declaring something to be a kind of eugenics is a popular way of ending arguments. It's interesting that by stressing the positive, happy, niceness of their program, the Templeton Foundation feel able to propose something that, looked at from another angle, has deeply un-PC implications.

[BPSDB]

AGRADEÇO!!!



AGRADEÇO O IMENSO CARINHO DE TODOS E OS COMENTÁRIOS.
POR ENQUANTO NÃO TENHO COMO RETRIBUIR, AS VISITAS E OS COMENTÁRIOS.
MAS FICA AQUI O MEU ENORME ABRAÇO.

NESTA CASA VOCÊ SERÁ SEMPRE BEM VINDO.
ESPERO LOGO TER O PC DE VOLTA... ACHO QUE PEGOU O VÍRUS DA GRIPE A.RSRRS.BRINCADEIRINHA. ACHO QUE É SÉRIO.

PARA VOCÊ MEU AMIGO UM POUQUINHO DE VI
NICIUS DE MORAIS.

Vinícius de Morais Eu sei e você sabe
Já que a vida quis assim

Que nada nesse mundo levará você de mim

Eu sei e você sabe
Que a distância não existe
Que todo grande amor

Só é bem grande se for triste
Por isso meu amor
Não tenha medo de sofrer

Que todos os caminhos
Me encaminham a você.
Assim como o Oceano, só é belo com o luar
Assim como a Canção, só tem razão se se cantar

Assim como uma nuvem, só acontece se chover

Assim como o poeta, só é bem grande se sofrer

Assim como viver sem ter amor, não é viver Não h
á você sem mim
E eu não existo sem você!


ESTE SELINHO PARA SELAR AINDA MAIS A NOSSA AMIZADE!


APROVEITE E VENHA CONHECER ESTES CANTINHOS...
Poetas-Um Vôo Livre

Sinal de Liberdade-uma expressão de sentimento

Blog Coletivo-Uma Interação de Amigos