That's not completely implausible. It could work. Does it? CNS Response and some academic collaborators have just published a paper saying yes: The use of referenced-EEG (rEEG) in assisting medication selection for the treatment of depression. How solid is it? Well, it would be wrong to say that there are many problems with this study. But then if you run off a cliff and plummet into a volcano, you've only made one mistake.
Depressed patients were randomized to one of two groups: treatment-as-usual, which generally meant the common antidepressants bupropion, citalopram, or venlafaxine, vs. rEEG-guided personalized drug treatment. The trial was pretty large, with 114 patients randomized, and pretty long, 12 weeks. The patients had failed to respond to at least one antidepressant (mean: 1.5) during the current episode, so they were slightly "treatment-resistant", though not extremely so.
What happened? The rEEG-guided group did better on the QIDS16SR self-report scale, and on most other measures. Not enormously: take a look at the graph, notice that the vertical axis doesn't start at zero. But better.
It's debatable whether stimulants are clinically useful as antidepressants in the long term, but they've got a good chance of making you feel nice for a few weeks, and make you say you feel better on a rating scale. Plus there's nothing like a pep pill to drive active placebo effects.
The authors say that "Almost all of the studies with depression not associated with medical disorders have reported minimal or no antidepressant effect of stimulants", and refer to some 1980s studies - yet their own trial has just shown that they do work in more than 50% of patients, and the latest Cochrane meta-analysis finds stimulants do work in the short term...
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In summary, there were two groups in this trial and they got entirely different sets of drugs. One group also got rEEG-based treatment personalization. That group did better, but that might have nothing to do with the rEEG: they might have done equally well if they'd just been assigned to stimulants or MAOis etc. by flipping a coin. We cannot tell, from these data, whether rEEG offered any benefits at all.
What's curious is that it would have been very simple to avoid this issue. Just give everyone rEEG, but shuffle the assignments in the control group, so that everyone was guided by someone else's EEG. So you'd give control Patient 2 the drugs that Patient 1 should have got, and vice versa; swap 3 and 4, 5 and 6, etc.
This would be a genuinely controlled test of the personalized rEEG system, because both groups would get the same kinds of drugs. It would have been a lot easier too. For one thing it wouldn't require the additional step of deciding what drugs to give the control group. The authors decided to follow the STAR*D treatment protocol in this study, which is not unreasonable, but that must have been a bit of a hard decision.
Second, it would allow the trial to be double-blind: in this study the investigators knew which group people were in, because it was obvious from the drug choice. Thirdly, it wouldn't have meant they had to exclude people whose rEEG recommended they get the same treatment that they would have got in the control group... and so on.
Hmm. Mysterious. Anyway, we may be hearing more about CNS Response soon, so watch this space.
(*) - Technically, some of them had failed an SSRI and some had failed "2 or more classes of antidepressants", but one of those classes will almost certainly have been an SSRI, because they're the first-line treatment.
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